Simian Stock Traders

Abstract from Chen, Lakshminarayanan and Santos, "How Basic are Behavioral Biases? Evidence from Capuchin Monkey Trading Behavior" Journal of Political Economy, June 2006

Behavioral economics has demonstrated systematic decision-making biases in both lab and field data. Do these biases extend across contexts, cultures, or even species? We investigate this question by introducing fiat currency and trade to a colony of capuchin monkeys, and recovering their preferences over a range of goods and gambles. We show that capuchins react rationally to both price and wealth shocks, but display several hallmark biases when faced with gambles, including reference-dependence and loss-aversion. Given our capuchins' inexperience with trade and gambles, these results suggest that loss-aversion extends beyond humans, and may be innate rather than learned.

A handy paper to send to your favorite derivatives trader.
h/t to Brad DeLong.

Headlines

Ripped from today's MassLive/Springfield Republican headlines:

Springfield Mayor Domenic Sarno says city to launch war on the streets to combat latest spate of killings
A War on Killing! Where's George Carlin when we really need him?

Canton Selectman Bob Burr Ends Campaign for Ted Kennedy's Senate Seat
Now that really narrows the field. (His "campaign" ended when he failed to get enough signatures).

Doubthat

Brad DeLong points to this critique of Ross Doubthat but why presume there is actual thought behind Ross's scribbling? At least David Brooks pretends to do research.

Wish list

A new Canon 1D Mark IV, Zeiss lens...then there's Leica's M9.

Note to self: hit lottery or find job with major money center bank.

For folks with real money and conspicuous consumption syndrome, Christmas is coming.

Polaroid's passing, part 2

Friday, the Telegraph reminds us, was the "use by" date for existing packages of Polaroid film. Unlike standard film, you're not supposed to store Polaroid materials in the refrigerator or freezer to extend useful life. Using out of date materials is something of a sideline among "analog" photographers so its demise will be extended for a bit. Given the fall color, I should unearth the last packs of 669 from the back of the bookshelf and go shoot some.

Polaroid had a profound impact on photography by providing for "instant" snapshots, proofing material for commercial photographers and a platform for fine art types. The company hired photography notables to work with its products (think St. Ansel in color) and amassed a considerable collection of photographic art, which will now be sold off in bankruptcy. Gone are the huge view cameras that William Wegman and others made good use of.

Supposedly Edwin Land discouraged experimenting with his products but the company developed an artsy sideline, promoting techniques like transfers (above) of the Polaroid inks or emulsion. Sitting off in the corner is the Sunpack slide printer, bought cheaply went Ritz decided to discontinue it eons ago, which I used for an occasional transfer. Support for the arts faded then disappeared when the ailing company got bought out, and a management scandal or two sunk it completely, leaving only the name as a commodity with any value.

Fuji still makes instant film (I'm not certain about its compatibility with 'roid holders) and there's an attempt underway by some investors to restart production of Polaroid materials in Europe. Head over to the UMass Fine Arts Center to see how Andy Warhol used the stuff.

The New York Times Does Not Like the European Welfare State

Along with Krugman, Dean Baker is a must read.

Mayoral Politics

While Bill Dwight's email has managed to really roil NoHo's mayor's contest, Agawam is really where the action is. Current lame duck Susan Dawson gets herself into another fight, once again at the Hall of Fame complex (what is it about that place). Dawson claims to have a "personal relationship with Jesus" and will now be issued a no trespass order courtesy of the guy who owns the restaurant (see the Republican for details).

Meanwhile, the leading vote getter in the mayoral primary, Derek Benton, admits to an arrest at a downtown Springfield strip club for destruction of property and assaulting a police officer. Benton, a former aid to Brian Lees (and presumably a good law and order Repub) calls the whole flap "petty politics" and notes that "its not me" who was arrested. If it wasn't him, who was it?

Moral of the story: when an Agawam politician promises to "fight" take them literally and be concerned about the assault rate in downtown Springfield.

Dedicated follower of fashion

Someone on Ralph Lauren's crew over did it with the Edit --> Transform --> Skew function in Photoshop. My favorite remark in the comments: "I had no idea Pez had a "Fashion Week" dispenser line." Boing Boing among others is having some fun with this and RalphCo's reaction.

Power portraits

Mitch Epstein, who hails from down the road in Holyoke, is on a quest. The NYT reviews his efforts at making images of America's energy sources. Epstein is a remarkable photographer and his book based on the family's business (the late Epstein Furniture) is compelling.

Don't just do something, stand there.

From Lowering the Bar:

There are many sad examples of innocent bystanders and police officers being injured as a result of high-speed chases, and so it is understandable that some cities might direct officers not to engage in those kinds of pursuits, on the grounds that it usually isn't worth the risk. But Wellford, South Carolina, is probably the only place where police have been directed not to chase suspects at all, even on foot.

World's Oldest Man

Walter's 113 and still going.

Leslie's Leaving

Leslie Kerwin's resigning as Secretary of Administration and Finance, heading off to a deanship at Harvard. Her leaving is a real loss. She's a very capable person, lots of talent. Leslie is also someone who understands municipal government and knows about towns. She'll be missed.

Dropped Objects

The Gazette (no link) reports that not much detail is forthcoming in the Air Force report about the wheels that fell from a C5 over Belchertown. I had the opportunity to review and comment on the environmental impact statement prepared in the early 80's when bringing the C5's to Westover was planned. Noise was the predominant concern at the time but a couple other details in the EIR stuck in my head.

One was that the C5 had the highest rate of dropped objects of any large aircraft. You had to search out side the report for a definition of dropped object -- essentially its a part of the plane that should stay attached but doesn't. The report also carefully listed all the landfills in proximity to the base. Much further in the report was a mention that the C5 is very prone to bird damage. One had to come to the conclusion on your own that where there are dumps, there are likely to be dump ducks & other fowl.

Slow turning but he finally gets it....

Andrew Sullivan sez:

The pattern is now clear: the imperative to play the political game has won on the right. The longer-term pattern is just as clear: a faction of congressional Democrats sometimes backed Bush on his initiatives (such as his tax cuts). No one in the Congressional Limbaugh-run GOP will back anything this president does. Not only that; they will assault him, race-bait him and insult him in a continuous reel of populist bile.

(De)tox

Arbonne International, LLC ("Arbonne") has voluntarily recalled one lot of its Seasource Detox Spa® Foaming Sea Salt Scrub.

This voluntary recall was initiated by Arbonne as a result of discovering the presence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteria in the recalled lot. No other lots are affected. The organism Pseudomonas aeruginosa may cause dermatitis, soft tissue infections, bacteremia, and a variety of system infections, particularly with users who are immunosuppressed. Because the Foaming Sea Salt Scrub is used to exfoliate the skin’s surface, there is a possibility that inadvertent introduction of the tainted product directly into any skin abrasions could result in infection.

No illnesses have been reported in connection with this product.

Too Much Time on His Hands

Christy Mihos wants to be Governor, no wait a minute, Senator. After all, he's made millions giving folks the opportunity to buy Fritos and Red Bull at 2:00 AM, why shouldn't he be a policy maker?
He's rich, so he must know sumpin'.

The Dummie Dozen

Salon provides a field guide to the knuckleheads of the Senate.

Volvo for sale?

According to Reuters: "China's Geely Automotive said on Wednesday its parent wants to bid for Ford's Volvo Car Corp -- the latest Chinese automaker to chase a foreign brand in a global industry overhaul."
Volvo owners may have to contemplate the consequences of owning a Commonist car.

Oops

Looks like Greenfield will get the room occupancy excise tax increase anyway, since the Mayor failed to inform the City Council as to why he vetoed their approval of the increase and its now to late to overturn the decision. The Recorder reports he hasn't asked the council to reverse themselves either.
So I guess Greenfield is now semi-business friendly.

Good For Hadley.

Hadley town meeting quickly and decisively accepted the optional excise taxes. Now lets see how many businesses flee to Greenfield where the Mayor is taking a "pro-business" stand and rejecting the revenue. Doubtless there will be traffic backed up on the I-91 exits as diners flock to the culinary center Greenfield will become.

By October 1, virtually no one will remember which towns have the excises and which don't, although the prospects of someone setting up a web site to remind us remain high. Overall, there seems to be less opposition to the room occupancy excise than the meals, probably because of the notion that folks from elsewhere stay at hotels. Neither tax will amount to much in terms of consumer demand and for many communities won't raise a significant amount of revenue or cover the loss in state aid. A band-aid solution to the whole issue of local revenues and sustainability.

Spare me the "anti-business" argument. The real local barriers to entry for businesses lie in overly zealous zoning and land use regulations, painfully slow and complicated permitting, and inadequate infrastructure.

As for the obligatory New Hampshire comparison, you can live free or die but pay an 8% meals tax and a 9% occupancy tax.

Ted Kennedy

I forget which state Democratic convention it was. I was a delegate, made my way into the Boston Garden and spotted Ted Kennedy, standing alone. I went up, introduced myself, thanked him for his work. Then I told him how, as a kid, I was inspired by his brother Bob's campaign for the senate in New York and getting the chance to see him in person. Senator Kennedy took my hand with both of his and said "You're so kind to remember my brother like that." A tear ran down his cheek.
Now its my turn to shed a tear.

15 most "dangerous" celebrities

Google these celebs at your own risk.

Meet Bob

BAGnews introduces us to Bob, the calm voice of dissent on health care promoted by the NY Times.

When analogies go bad.

Nazis are big these days, given the "town hells" and what passes for trenchant political commentary there and elsewhere. Barney Frank's putdown of a hitlerizer has become viral but ThinkProgress offers this clip of a misguided soul yelling "Heil Hitler" at an Israeli commenting on Israel's health care system.
I'll now make the obligatory reference to Goodwin's Law and note that the woman (who supposedly was wearing a JDF tshirt), like her kindred spirit haranguing Barny have automatically lost the debate over health care, if they ever intended to engage in one. There's some irony in noting that the person who originally pointed out the "Reductio ad Hitlerum" fallacy was Leo Strauss, intellectual godfather to the neocons.

DDoSing Obama

Gotta hand it to spammers. If you're mad as hell at the Obama administration, some spammers are conveniently making available software that they claim will let you launch a denial of service attack against Obama's website. Of course, it installs malware on the teabagger/birther/death panelist's machine.

Here's the kicker: you're promised money if you download the software and are advised to return to the site for updates if your antivirus software interferes with the program. I guess that if one is gullible enough to believe that the Prez was born in Kenya and faked his birth here or actually has plans for killing off grandma, then one will take advantage of this offer.

h/t to CNET and Proofpoint for the reports.

A complete unknown, with no direction home, just like a rolling stone

Bob Dylan got picked up by the police in Long Branch, NJ. Long Branch was one of those blue collar, working class, diverse Jersey towns that happen to be by the sea. With the real estate boom, developers came in and gentrified a stretch of the town near the ocean. Board walk, restaurants, high rise condos, and the like. Just beyond that lies a collection of smallish single family housing, not in the best upkeep, small city lots and home nonetheless. Dylan went wandering in that neighborhood and got stopped. The Globe has the story here, the Baltimore Sun opines here.
"Watch for plain clothes" doesn't quite fit since he was picked up by a uniform. Look out kid, something you did.

Rumors of one's ancestry

Historical precedence in the Birther movement, courtesy of Brad DeLong.

The Real McCoy

The Bulletin publishes an editorial cartoon by Glen McCoy (no link) thereby affirming the opinion of those who feel its primary purposes are fish wrap or birdcage liner. Since its impossible to unsubscribe from a free newspaper, expect surplus copies to pile up.

Why run the cartoon? Perhaps the editor was trying to remind us of the alternative universe beyond reality or maybe the brain becomes fevered after practicing too many "hot squats" while running a hair dryer. Just sayin'.

More enlightened corporate leadership

Both the NY Times and the Financial Times are reporting that the Federal judge hearing the proposed settlement between the SEC and Bank of America is unhappy. It seems Judge Rakoff has issues with the amount of the settlement ($33 million vs $5.8 billion paid out in bonuses -- undoubtedly to retain the highly skilled) and the fact that BA neither admits or denies the charges.

My favorite line, which was edited out of the later story in the Times, has the BA attorney telling the judge that neither BA boss Lewis and now former Merill CEO Thain didn't know what was in the document they were signing, which was negotiated by their lawyers.

It was Judge Rakoff who refused the SEC/Worldcom settlement in 2003. You may recall that then Worldcom CEO Bernie Ebbers defended himself by saying he didn't know what was going on, it was his staff's fault.

Yes, this merits a bonus.

The Financial Times reports that US banks are on track to collect $38.5 billion in overdraft fees this year with those least able to pay being most likely to be hit. This is double from nine years ago. (Example: Bank of America charges $35 for a $6 overdraft and charges can build to $350 per day).
Of course they do this because of the risk involved in not knowing their customers, so says the attorney for the American Bankers Association. Of course, with higher risk comes the need for higher compensation.
The Need To Be Compensated seems to be a recurring theme. We all need adequate compensation, just seems some folks are more needy than others, like those risk taking bankers and brokers who live by their wits, in the jungles of capitalism, reading the Art Of War.

It's Your Money....

Dean Baker takes on the argument that we gotta pay them bankers to keep the talent, this time the WaPo version:

If the Post had solicited the views of a populist, or an economist, they might have told readers that much of what the banks earn comes directly at the expense of consumers and businesses. For example, suppose that Goldman Sachs' large trading profits last quarter came in part from oil trades. This would mean that it managed to buy oil or oil derivatives on the way up, preventing oil companies from getting as much profit as they otherwise would have received. This is money that they could have used in developing new energy sources, as the oil companies so often tell us. Alternatively, if the run-up was purely speculative, Goldman's successful traders caused consumers to pay more money for gas and home heating oil than otherwise would have been the case. There would be a similar story if Goldman made its money on the way down, with the trader pulling way money that would have otherwise gone to consumers or producers.

The public has no obvious interest in subsidizing traders to speculate in financial markets. If the speculators win, then the loans that Goldman and the others receive will be repaid, but this repayment will only be a portion of the higher prices paid by consumers and lower profits earned by producers as a result of Goldman's speculation.

Moving beyond the world of speculation, it is not clear that the marginal contribution of the individual bank executives involved in the more mundane tasks of running a bank can run into the millions or tens of millions of dollars a year.

Amen to this.

Fr. Stephen says "you are not a bible character."

Sunderland's Override

Sunderland votes today on what amounts to a fairly substantial override. The proponents got off to an early start organizing, signs went up, people have been out canvasing. The opponents have managed in the last week to put up an effort, including the trailer pictured above (which allegedly was hauled in from Hatfield). Overrides for operating expenses tend to fail although a number of towns seem to have pushed them through this spring. That Sunderland, a well managed town, can find itself in real trouble is a sad commentary on a one size fits all tax limitation policy, state aid policy and a continued upward pressure for school funding.

Sunderland needs a yes vote. Beyond that we need a serious, evidence based, discussion about costs and taxation.

Its a Brand.

Tom at 538 interviews the head of the Repub Governor's Association:

538: Turning to Mark Sanford, he joins a growing list of socially-conservative Republicans who look hypocritical because of their own marital infidelities. How much damage do episodes like Sanford’s inflict on the Republican brand, and specifically the Republican boasts about being the so-called “family values” party?

NA: What Mark said in all the years I’ve known him, is that the party is exactly that—it’s a brand. It’s no different than John Deere or Caterpillar or Chik-fil-A. Those are the three examples he would give. He would go on to say that when people were buying those brands they knew what they were getting, and they knew it was worth paying the price for the quality they got in return.

What NA didn't mention is those brands are brands because the companies behind them produce products that work as advertised and add value or in Chick-fil-A's case have cows.

Leaders push to override zoos’ cuts

Giving new meaning to ZooMass. Now if the MMA took this approach....

(Note that the Globe photo is from the Philly zoo.)

From the Universal Hub

Patrick: I will not buy that magazine and you will not shoot that dog

By adamg - Sun, 07/12/2009 - 6:53pm.

Patrick to zoo officials: Quit the fearmongering and we'll talk about saving the zoos.

Earlier:
Franklin Park Zoo threatens to shut down, kill some animals.

Looking towards Monday Morning

From Stephan Pastis, he of "Pearls Before Swine" (the comic strip, not the band):

An Inspirational Feel-Good Post to Share With Any of Your Friends or Neighbors Who Could Really Use a Boost Today

I just read a book on Genghis Khan. I learned three things.

1) Genghis Khan’s warriors ate koumiss. Koumiss is fermented mare’s milk. Sometimes they would let it harden in the sun so they could snack on it later. Think of it as a poor man’s Frito.

2) When out of koumiss, these guys drank their own horse’s blood. Straight from the horse’s vein. Sometimes they’d let the blood harden like they did the koumiss, so they’d have two snacks later. Mongol warriors were just loaded with snacks.

3) When these warriors stepped out of line, their punishment was to be wrapped in huge woven rugs. That might sound okay, but consider this. They were then trampled by horses.

In all the other moments of their day, they were trying not to be killed in battle. And it was below freezing. And nobody bathed.

So if you are having a bad day today because the fax didn’t go through, or the Chevy wouldn’t start, look at the bright side:

You are not chomping on fermented mare’s milk.

Right winging it

ThinkProgress offers this: Under Misspelled Banner, Buchanan And White Nationalist Brimelow Argue For English-Only Initiatives

and this from he who walks the Appalachian trail (pre-trip of course): Sanford Predicts Stimulus Will Result In ‘A Thing Called Slavery’

and from our former Governor: Romney: Republicans ‘Believe In Allowing People To Have Choice In Their Health Care’ — Except A Public Option

and offering education: Census Bureau: We’re Working With Bachmann To ‘Explain The Rules Of The Census’

In memorium

Reuters reports: A fight broke out on a Florida bus when news of Michael Jackson's death sparked debate over whether he should be remembered as a great musical talent, and one passenger was charged with assault. When one passenger disagreed with anothers evaluation of Jackson's place in pop music the offended party started chasing the would be critic with a knife.

Never speak ill of the departed.

Go see....

Julius Lester is a man of many talents and his considerable ability as a photographer is on display at the Robert Floyd Gallery (2 East St & Route 10) in Southampton through July 31st. Julius will do gallery talks Sunday (June 28th) at 3:00 and 4:15 PM. for his "Ways of Seeing" exhibit.

Starting July 1st, John Van de Graaff will be showing "Birds of the Massachusetts Coast" at the US Fish and Wildlife Service on Westgate Center Drive in Hadley (that's past the credit union and Staples). The opening reception is July 9th from 4:30 to 6:30 PM, else hours are Monday - Friday, 8-4:30. Forget the illustrations in the bird book, these ain't like that.

Two sets of remarkable images, no charge at either venue.

Tagged isn't it.

Got an email recently from a long lost friend advising me that so and so has pictures for you to see. I just had to agree to be added to the friends list and was advised that the sender would be disappointed should I not respond. Turns out the site, Tagged, does what's known as content scraping and, if I had gone through with the sign up process, would have sent similar emails to everyone in my address book.

Read the CNET piece and avoid this.

#GOPFAIL

I guess all that Twitters is not gold.

The Daily Show Defense.

Americablog points us to this:

Justice Department lawyers told the judge that future presidents and vice presidents may not cooperate with criminal investigations if they know what they say could become available to their political opponents and late-night comics who would ridicule them.

Doubts are rising about the Obama DOJ.

Morning news

Scanning the (online) papers this morning....

William Williams, the soon to be former town manager of Billerica, is leaving after he made some less than flattering observations about the place during an address to a Chamber of Commerce breakfast. Mark Twain advised: “always tell the truth – in will amaze your friends and confound your enemies.” It's good to remember that Twain was self-employed.

The city of Springfield, having convinced the legislature to allow it to require residency on the part of all city employees not covered by a union contract is now considering a mandate to require that any contractor with a contract of over $250,000 have at least 35% of its workforce be city residents. The excuse is, as with the residency requirement, that the city's money should be spent to benefit city residents. This parochialism will likely result in higher costs, fewer bidders, and inspire the kind of “hack hiring” that you'd think municipalities would want to avoid. Springfield is emerging from receivership but the argument that it's “the city's money” is bogus, given the level of state aid it gets and the amount of state and federal funds involved in major building projects.

The members of SEIU in Amherst met to discuss a possible contract reopener and a giveback of the 3.5% cost of living adjustment in the face of the town's deficit. SEIU represents the technical and clerical workers in town, the folks that make up the infrastructure of the government. Most of their work goes unnoticed, if its done well, which puts them in an interesting position. Amherst, like other towns, is a collective enterprise and we need to approach the budget issues from that perspective, rather than lob brickbats.

They're flying too high

I'm struck by, actually sick of, the commentary that's been streaming out about Sonia Sotomayor that began even in advance of her nomination to the Supreme Court by Barack Obama, himself subjected to some pretty wild accusations in the MSM and the Internets. Homeland Security issued a report indicating the level of dangerousness from homegrown wingnuts is at its highest level since the early '90's, when coincidentally another unconventional person – William Jefferson Clinton – managed to make it to the presidency.

For those people who Ann Richards would label as “being born on third base and growing up thinking they hit a triple” folks like Clinton, Obama and Sotomayor represent a pretty scary prospect. After all they managed by virtue of intelligence, hard work and dumb luck to make it into positions of power in the public sector, not as “public servants” but as decision makers of the highest order. This type of achiever challenges the master narrative of who should lead and breaks the wealth equals intelligence paradigm. These are uppity types who don't know their place and the “wise Latina” remark illustrates that tendency, so it gets replayed over and over again.

This fear – the natural order of things is under attack – gets transmitted up and down the line in a variety of ways. From the people John Gresham characterizes as “living poor but voting rich” to the third basers and beyond, the word is out, the barricades are going up. The folks who intend to profit from this know enough to stay just far enough out of the way, same as the leaders of the KKK did. The messages aren't really coded, just slightly oblique, couched in good PR fashion by individuals who are clever with words. The opinions are sanitized just enough to make them acceptable to repeat and placed in contexts that inhibit us from questioning the authority or motives of the speakers.

Computing Center for Holyoke

The Governor's announced plans to build a high performance computing center in Holyoke. Looks like a home run for that town and its departing mayor, Mike Sullivan. Sullivan's done a credible job as mayor, operating in difficult circumstances.

Holyoke, having a municipal utility and keeping control of the dams, may have done itself a real favor.

"Hack Holidays"

Those two Suffolk County holidays -- Evacuation Day and Bunker Hill Day -- that got extended to state employees in general either because the state offices are located in Suffolk County or through some kind of equity arrangement are under fire. They were saved by a narrow vote but there may be another try to eliminate them. As it goes, the days off are expensive, disruptive and difficult to justify, except that Evacuation Day falls on St. Patrick's Day and Bunker Hill celebrates a battle that was largely fought (and lost) on Breed's Hill.

Remember counties? Some were disestablished in a move to reform government. Suffolk was supposedly merged with municipal government (aka Boston). Only 7 out of the 14 counties actually went away. Hampshire and Franklin reinvented themselves as Councils of Governments and are now thought of as models for the regionalization proposals now being promoted out of the State House.

And to the West

If you think things are bad in Boston, consider Albany. For the last forty years, Republicans have controlled the State Senate until last November's elections when the Democrats ended up with a two vote majority. Suffice it to say the Democrats ascendancy to power has not gone smoothly. Last Monday, two dissident Democrats (both with some significant ethics and other issues) joined the Repubs in a surprise vote to reorganize the leadership. When the lights came back on, literally, the Repubs were now in control of the Senate.

Moving in the background is one Blase Thomas Golisano, a billionaire, libertarian, three time candidate for governor, who had pumped a bunch of money into the Democrats campaigns hoping for some “reform” to be promoted when they gained a majority. Suffice it to say that Mr. Galisano is unhappy with his subsequent treatment by the new majority. He, like Rushbo, moved his primary residence to Florida to protest new taxes but Golisano apparently decided to extract a non-monetary penalty as well, hence the overthrow of the Democratic leadership. With all the issues facing New York and just two weeks to go in the legislative session, the place is now in chaos.

Bob Dylan said it best: money doesn't talk, it swears.

Palin on Socialism

From Mudflats:

There are times when commentary just seems unnecessary.

(From Sean Hannity’s interview on Fox News tonight with Sarah Palin)

Hannity: By the way for all of us in New York, where we are now, where we pay 10% income tax, you actually give every citizen in Alaska a check back.

Palin: We are the only state with a negative tax rate (Hannity looks at the camera in disbelief and envy mouthing “I’m so envious(?)”) where we don’t have any income, sales or property tax statewide, and yes we have a share of our oil resource revenue that goes back to the people that own the resources. Imagine that.

Hannity: And it went up higher since you’ve been the governor and you negotiated with the oil companies. That all went up so people get a bigger check.

Palin: There was a corrupt tax system up there and we had a couple of lawmakers end up in jail because of the tax system that was adopted so we cleaned it up and said we wanted a fair and equitable share of the resources that we own, and the people will share in those resource revenues that are derived.

********************************

5 minutes, and one wormhole into another dimension later…..

********************************

Palin: If Americans aren’t paying attention, unfortunately our country could evolve into something that we do not even recognize. Certainly that is so far from what the founders of our country had in mind for us.

Hannity: Socialism?

Palin: Well….that is where we are headed.

Dr. K calls the bottom

Paul Krugman, to whom we must all pay attention, says we've likely bottomed out. He adds conditions, of course. Roubini makes the case for pessimism.

Ain't technology grand?

A friend provides a group of us daily updates on the phoebes nesting under the eave of his garage, courtesy of a webcam and an old laptop that now sleeps in the garage. The live feed is supplemented with stills. Thanks to my generous brother, I can keep up with developments using my iPod Touch.

What will they think of next?

Memorial Day follow up.

On Memorial Day I think about my uncle, who I'm named after, killed when his plane crashed on Papua New Guinea. Listening to public radio this afternoon, driving north toward home on I91, I heard an addition story to the Globe's report on the international trade in WW2 planes and how its disrupting the attempts to locate MIA's -- including my Uncle Bernie. He was wounded when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor trying to get to his plane at Hickam Field, recovered, and continued his service on a bomber crew. His plane went down on his last mission.

My grandmother acted like she expected him to walk through the back door at any minute.

For another take on war, check in with the History News Network with this piece on the insurrection known as the "Civil" war.

Mass Budget Checks in

From the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center:

The Commonwealth is facing a severe fiscal crisis, caused both by the deep national recession and by policy choices made over the past decade in Massachusetts.
One option to close the state's $3.5 billion budget gap would be to develop a plan that resembles a stable four-legged stool: budget cuts; federal stimulus money; new tax revenue; and reserves.
The House Ways and Means (HWM) proposal seeks instead to balance the budget on only two of these legs, suggesting no withdrawal from the Stabilization Fund and no new tax revenue. As a result, the committee proposes deep cuts in local aid, human services, education, and virtually every other area of state government.
This Budget Monitor provides an overview of the House Ways and Means proposals for each category of state government, comparing spending levels to the FY 2009 budget and to the Governor's proposals.
The Budget Monitor can be found at www.massbudget.org

Budget Kabuki, part 2

Let's see: announcement in the Globe that 81 reps have signed on to restoring funding for the Quinn Bill (HW&M didn't eliminate the Quinn Bill, just the state match which could leave towns liable for the entire cost). DeLeo is open to a sales tax increase. Peter Kocot steps up with amendments to raise the meals tax (an option) and to expand sales tax to services.

Katherine Clark would end the sales tax exemption on alcohol. Karyn Polito would increase hours of eligibility for insurance benefits from 20 to 30 hours (but not touch insurance for elected officials). Bill Bowles would up the occupancy tax by 1% over current rates (including B&B's) and the meals tax to 6% (mandatory).

Angelo Scaccia plays it safe by offering optional 1% and 2% increases in the meals tax. Dennis Guyer and a number of co-sponsors restore regional school transportation funding.

Most of the 978 amendments filed to the HW&M budget bill look like earmarks, at least from the short description on House amendments list.

Fairwell to Pelham?

There's an op-ed piece in the Amherst Bulletin that suggests Pelham should give it up and go out of existence. The article doesn't really break new ground, since Pelham already tried (and failed) to disestablish itself as a town. That was awhile ago - try 1854 - according to a Massachusetts Historical Commission Reconnaissance Survey Town Report .

According to the survey, Pelham reported supporting more paupers than any other town in Hampshire County. Believing that taxes and expenses would be less if they were part of an adjacent town the good Pelhamites petitioned the legislature to be divided up between Amherst and Belchertown. Apparently Amherst and B'town were not thrilled at the prospect of absorbing a low rent district so the legislation failed. The petition was repeated from time to time into the 1870's. No takers, so at some point Pelham simply decided to continue to work things out on its own.

Pelham's potential merger with Amherst popped up during budget discussions last April but the override provided at least temporary relief and things sort of trailed off. The issues of sustainability and regionalization are real ones and need to be looked at carefully and not just for Pelham.

What took so long?

Beanie Bo is now available for sale.

The Numbers

House Ways and Means Budget is posted. Local aid numbers are here. Cherry sheets for towns and regional schools are here. I expect that DOR will issue revised cherry sheets in the near future.

Budget toll?

MassPike numbers: 167 toll takers scheduled for Easter Sunday this year versus 213 last year. 17 workers called in sick, so staffing levels were about 30% less than last year. The Pike maintains that it's essentially out of money, the OT budget is slashed, and this is what happens. Another dose of reality Charlie Murphy style, mismanagement, or “in your face” acting out?

We report, you decide. (Numbers are from an SNS report – no link).

Tea'd off

The “tea party” as seen from Mudflats:

An Anti-Bush rally? That’s really how I had to look at this. The last eight years have seen the national debt soar to heights we could not have imagined when Bush took office. The taxes we pay on this April 15 reflect Bush tax policies. The hardships we feel reflect Bush philosophies. Bank bailouts? Bush administration. We privatize profits, socialize losses, give tax cuts to the rich, and pay for two unnecessary wars, and this is what we get. And yes, it’s all Obama’s fault.

Reality as we know it.

Blagojevich cast in NBC reality series.

Have you no shame, Peacock?

Budet Kabuki

Apropos for the day that taxes are due, the Massachusetts House is will release its version of the state budget, which promises cuts and more cuts. Shortly after 5:00 PM yesterday, municipal officials got a one page press release from the Lt. Governor outlining the administrations intended actions to meet the latest revenue shortfall. A reduction in local aid wasn't in the package but its certainly been hinted at with the House budget.

The Statehouse News Service (SNS) reports a contentious meeting of the Local Government Advisory Committee (LGAC) yesterday. The LGAC is made up of a variety of municipal officials, including selectmen and town administrators (not the usual Patrick administration mayoral tilt) and its members were not happy with the budget situation and the unwillingness of the power that be to give towns other revenue options and some flexibility to manage. Melrose mayor Robert Dolan voiced the opinion that “reluctance to pass the local-option taxes stemmed from a 'self-preservationist attitude' and describing the sentiment among local governments as having 'almost a revolutionary feel.' He said, 'The insulation of Beacon Hill has never been worse.'” (no link)

SNS also notes the planned release, next week, of the Municipal Relief Commission which is co-chaired by Stan Rosenberg. Knowing the care that Stan brings to his work, I'm certain the commission has worked things through carefully. But this thing has to pass which inevitably means compromises will be made and promising ideas will be left on the table. The report is overdue, in part because of the complexity of the situation and in part because of leadership changes in the House as the budget process was gearing up. Details of the package aren't available but it appears to be a combination of local option taxes, health insurance changes, regulatory reforms and a push toward regionalization.

May you live in interesting times is a curse, indeed.

Second cup of coffee

Paraguay, those Palins, and Pottygate -- oh my! No more mayoral bar fights tho'.

They are among us!

Rep. Spencer Bachus (R - Fantasyland; not to be confused with Max of Montana) says there are 17 of his colleagues in the congress who are practicing socialists.

He has a list but named only Bernie Sanders (D - Free People's Republic of Vermont).

Joe McCarthy is stirring.

Ethical Corporations

Ethisphere, a think tank that studies business ethics, published its list of the World’s Most Ethical Companies - 99 in all. Something that McDonald's and Ten Thousand Villages share.

Tomorrow's Elections

Not a lot of contests on the ballot for tomorrows election and one can expect the standard, disappointing, local election turnout. The main event of course is the school committee and I'm deciding if I'm going to “bullet vote” for Steve Rivkin. I like what Rivkin's had to say and appreciate his willingness to insist on data and information, rather than the usual goven by feel approach that (rightly or wrongly) I've associated with the Amherst schools. The debate, for me, over a single (aka “bullet”) vote for Rivkin isn't in opposition to Irv Rhodes. Given factors like experience, name recognition, and the number of lawn signs out, I think he's going to win. The sole vote for Rivkin is to boost his chances.

I think John Coull, given his experience and personality, deserves a place on the Redevelopment Authority.

As for Library Trustee, I'm still deciding. I don't like Carol Gray's suggestion that you get rid of staff COLA's to balance the budget. It's the librarians, after all, who are the information specialists and make the place go. Libraries tend to be the single free educational/social benefit offered to adults in any community.

No other contests on the ballot, not even town meeting in my precinct.

Another Mission Accomplished

From the smoldering ruins of the clown show known as the Bush Administration comes the Boston Globe story that:

Just months before the start of last year's stock market collapse, the federal agency that insures the retirement funds of 44 million Americans departed from its conservative investment strategy and decided to put much of its $64 billion insurance fund into stocks.

The person in charge of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation was a former Lehman Brothers managing director. So the fund that's supposed to bail out failing pension funds may need a bailout. Of course the claim is the PBGC had to change its investment strategy to avoid a bailout.

Heckuva job.

Cosmic

Here's one way to gain some perspective --the Astronomy Picture of the Day -- this is The Seahorse. (Click to enlarge the image.)

Say amen....

Limbaugh's Unrighteous Hold on Christian Right

Looters

A David Leonhart piece in the Times worth reading.

Daylight Savings

We've now sprung ahead -- ostensibly to save lots of energy -- but it turns out that daylight savings (concept attributed to Ben Franklin) really doesn't accomplish that goal very well. Two economists from University of California at Santa Barbara, Matthew Kotchen and Laura Grant, using data from Indiana suggest that it not only fails to save electricity but may actually increase costs to consumers in terms of electricity and environmental impact (NBER Working Paper No. 14429, a short article is here).

A Department of Energy study concluded that the practice saves 0.03% of electricty consumed over a year or 0.02% of the total US energy consumption in 2007. A savings but hardly impressive. Its actual impact may vary from location to location around the country, save Arizona and Hawaii where folks haven't found a need for the practice.

The DOE study found "statistically insignificant" changes in gasoline consumption which challanges one of my pet theories for DST: it prompts you to go to the mall after work, rather than home 'cause its dark, which is why retailers argue for it. Maybe the most powerful explanation for continuing the practice is golf.

Mr. Market and the President

I should have shut the TV off this morning after the Van Morrison interview, only to let things slide into "Face the Nation" where Bob Schieffer repeated the tired canard about "the market," to wit:

"It seems as if every time the Obama Administration announces a specific effort to help the economy, Wall Street tanks."

Mr. Schieffer would be well advised to watch the March 4th edition of the Early Show, wherein Jon Stewart not only shreds the shouting heads on CNBC but succinctly explains why Mr. Market ain't a reliable political indicator (my favorite: it tanked when Truman announced an end to World War 2). He might also wander over to FiveThirtyEight for a more indepth treatment on Mr. Market, politics and the economy.

I'm sorry, so sorry...

Say you're sorry to Rush, courtesy of the DCCC

Man of Steele

From the Bad Reporter.

No surprises here.

Krugman points us to this piece at Crooks and Liars.

Maybe George Will is still using the same old scripts on climate change.

Think Different.

Libertarians for tax hikes

Don't spend the money yet, but....

Now that the stimulus bill is law, we're beginning to get some idea of what might happen for municipalities. Commissioner of Education Mitchell Chester sent a memo to school superintendents and charter school directors (but apparently not to us municipal types) announcing funding. The Gazette published a list with specific numbers for various districts, but as the Commissioner's letter notes "much needs to be done before we can make commitments to your districts for a specific amount of funds under any of these programs." Allocations from the federal "stabilization fund" are determined by the governor and Governor Patrick promised (at the MMA annual meeting) to attempt to use the money to help reduce the deficits towns face.

Late Friday the Lt. Governor's office sent out an email advising that the lists published on the state's recovery web site (and reported in area papers) are a "work in progress" and "no decisions have been made relative to funding or priorities." It notes that most municipal projects are on the "unreviewed" list but will be evaluated and considered for funding. This is welcome news, given the reaction to the "state approved, shovel ready" list which contains a lot of requests from charter schools. The list was also heavily weighted toward communities that have ready access to planners and designers and have projects on the shelf.

The unreviewed list is 187 pages long and one wonders just how much the wish list got pared down in the preliminary review process. Greenfield's $250,000,000 biomass plant is there and I have difficulty believing that project would be designed, permitted and bid out in six months or that the Buckland highway and public safety complex (at $0) is feasible in that timeframe. Amherst drivers will be happy to note that the town listed a $4.8 million request for backlogged projects identified through its pavement management program.

Working through all this will be a major task in what is already a very difficult budget year. I'm waiting for the House Ways and Means Committee to report out its budget (towns have an able advocate in Steve Kulik) and proposals from the Municipal Relief Commission co-chaired by Stan Rosenberg. Those efforts should frame what the next fiscal year will look like. In the meantime, we'll keep looking for those black swans.

Newtonian Politics

Krugman's assessment of Repub behavior on the stimulus bill is right on target, per usual:

And the rhetorical response of conservatives to the stimulus plan — which will, it’s worth bearing in mind, cost substantially less than either the Bush administration’s $2 trillion in tax cuts or the $1 trillion and counting spent in Iraq — has bordered on the deranged.

I also think that Avigreen over at the Blue Mass Group has a handle on their strategy:

In 1993 and 1994, Newt Gingrich changed the way that the Republican party does business. Before Gingrich, there were policy differences, but strong working relationships allowed major legislation to move when Reagan and Bush Sr. worked with Democratic Speaker Tip O'Neill.

Faced with the election of Bill Clinton, Gingrich offerred a new approach designed to change the long-term minority status of Republicans in the House and Senate: fight President Clinton on everything.

And so it goes. What makes the situation more frustrating is Democrats like Ben Nelson getting suckered into collaborating.

Trivia

Google Robert DeLeo and the entry that comes up first is for Stone Temple Pilots' bass player.

The Massachusetts Speaker of the House takes second place.

Ed Brooke on Obama

Ed Brooke reflects on Obama and Steele.

My sentiment exactly...

John Cole (Balloon Juice) sez:

I really don’t understand how bipartisanship is ever going to work when one of the parties is insane.

Amen.

Budget Blues, part 2

The Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center offers an overview of the Guv's budget (House 1) here. Note the discussion of education aid and the bind about half the state's municipalities are in with foundation spending for K-12 education:

under the Governor’s FY 2010 budget, increasing
foundation budgets at the local level, combined
with no increases in state aid, would mean that 153,
or 47 percent, of the state’s school districts will
have spending requirements below their
foundation budget.

That may pose a constitutional problem. In the interim, the Massachusetts Municipal Association's noted that the budget appears to require communities to spend no less than 95% of their FY '09 school budgets in FY '10. That may force additional cuts to the "municipal" side of the budget, given that Chapter 70 (education aid) is earmarked for schools.

The Guv is counting on Federal aid to make the whole budget work and that may or may not be gone due to the actions of "moderates" in the Senate who don't quite have the big picture on what a stimulus is. This from Republicans who have taken a surplus to a deficit and spent a trillion on a war of choice, with more losses to come, being aided by post partisans from across the aisle. If you want the height of hypocrisy, check out the McSame quote in the NYT piece on the bill.

It's stimulating all right

Sad, watching the senate Democrats in Washington pull apart the stimulus package and strip out aid to the states in the process. The intent, of course, is to get a “bipartisan” bill which increasingly has the appearance of a “ share the blame” bill offering cover if the whole thing doesn't work or fending off potential 2010 campaign issues. We've seen this before, as with the house vote on the bill or in Peanuts cartoons – Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown.

Krugman is right on target, as usual.

Must be a slow news day

The Globe finds it necessary to run a story on those mounds of snow. Then again, I'm blogging about it.

Happy Groundhog Day!

Waiting on Phil to tell us about the next six weeks of weather we also have this (click to enlarge):

Fees

The folks who write the Amherst Center op-ed piece in the Bulletin seem to be unhappy with Larry Schaffer's meeting the Finance Committee's target of no more than 2% growth by increasing earnings (aka fees) for a couple of departments. The Centrists give Larry credit for creativity but then go on to argue that his actions somehow deprive other town functions, including those whose budgets the Town Manager is not responsible for, of needed revenues. They believe that revenue from ambulance fees, for example, are not used simply on ambulance services but “spread across” the other priorities of the town. If Liesure Services can raise revenues, shouldn't those revenues get shared with perhaps the library?

But if the article's correct, Larry's meeting the target by raising fees, not taxes. There are a whole range of fees a town can raise either by statute or bylaw. Whatever the case, a fee is designed not to raise general revenues but to compensate the community for the provision of the service, has to relate to the provision of that service and provide a benefit to the fee payer. Fees aren't intened to be spread all over, taxes are.

The Centrists appear to have the same misunderstanding of enterprise funds. Basically, the fund gets used to offset the particular operation or department its set up for. Any retained revenues have to get deposited back into the fund at the end of the year, rather than becoming free cash. You can take money out of the fund to reimburse the town for expenses related to the operation of the enterprise. In short, if wastewater is operated as an enterprise, you can compensate the town for expenses related to wastewater but you can't take funds from the sewer bills for the library or have them “allocated like any other revenue.”

In getting a department to pay for some, or all, of the costs of operating itself Larry is in effect freeing up general revenues (that would be taxes and unearmarked state aid) for other purposes. The last paragraph notes that revenues should be shared “where the law allows” and its helpful to know where the limits lie. The Centrists are certainly correct to suggest that all sources of revenue be on the table when discussing the town budget as a whole, if for no other reason to determine to what extent departments can be self funding. To state the obvious: if a department is self-funding but less than functional, that's a good reason to consider eliminating it.

Conspicuous Consumption

Taxes going up, fees going up, unresponsive government, property values dropping...sound familiar? Money meets the recession.

Mars Rover Hits Middle Age

Memory lapse & misdirection.

That got their attention.

The Amherst Bulletin reports on a Larry Shaffer sound check – to test his microphone he announced that the town's bought another golf course. That brought speculation that it was The Ledges in South Hadley. South Hadley currently has Barry Del Castilo as town manager, Gus Sayer as school superintendent so why not continue the trend?

I'm sure Larry's announcement had a similar impact as Regan's “we've begun bombing the Soviet Union” sound check did. No apologies were issued by the Selectboard, though.

Bailouts

The London Banker offers something to ponder, particularly in light of the recent protests from the White House on executive compensation.

You are there.

Here an amazing image of the Inauguration – 1,474 megapixels worth – using a Canon G10, a robotic camera mount and stitching software. If you were at the event, you might find yourself in the crowd. Be sure to check out Uncle Dick in his farewell appearance.

h/t to Mudflats.

Kulik steps up.

Steve Kulik puts the MMA's reform bill in play. It looks like the charter school provision will definitely bring some opposition from the administration, given what the Globe is reporting.

Budget Blues, part one

I was at the Massachusetts Municipal Association (MMA) annual meeting last weekend and got hear the Governor first hand explain his intended reduction of local aid, which left a lot of us puzzled. The Gov will reduce lottery aid and additional assistance by 9.74% and “hold harmless” Chapter 70 (aid to education funds) since education was a priority. In most communities, school budgets make up well over 50% of expenditures and use far more funds than Ch. 70 allocates, so the Gov's sympathies notwithstanding, schools should expect a reduction in spending this year and next.

The Gov's proposals were greeted with grim faces and some testiness and in a couple of cases he responded in kind. The reality is the proposed FY '09 cut is less than anticipated – we were looking at 10% of all “cherry sheet” aid, not simply a reduction in two categories. (Folks who want to learn more about state aid and cherry sheets should check the Department of Revenue website.) The state also provides a variety of local aid that doesn't show on the cherry sheet: community policing, formula grants to councils on aging, Chapter 90 (the so-called “gas tax” money for roads) and a variety of technical assistance grants, any and all of which we can expect to be reduced with todays scheduled announcement.

He also laid out some proposals that will be helpful: taxing telco properties; a one cent increase in meals/lodging tax that will be distributed statewide through the lottery formula; moving eligible retirees onto Medicaid; reducing the require union vote on switching insurance; changing the funding schedule for pensions. The local option of adding one or two cents to meals and lodging taxes is out there. Missing was any mention of giving municipalities the same level of control over health plan design that the state enjoys or a change in motor vehicle excise amortization.

Sometime this afternoon, DOR is going to post local aid numbers for this and next year. We'll also be scouring their site for data on the telco tax and potential meals/lodging revenues.

The MMA meeting was a bit lackluster this year --the seminar offerings weren't that attractive (at least to me) and attendance appeared to be down. I did run into two members of the Amherst Selectboard (one of who I almost didn't recognize without her laptop). I noted that the water temperature in the Hynes restrooms appeared to be below 120 degrees. Something to look into.

Roberts fumbles the oath.

Chief Justice Roberts remains true to form for a Bush appointee. Heckava job.

No book deal, either.

Ripped off from Pab Sungenis (another St. Bonaventure grad.)

Thanks, George.

Edward Luce in the FT surveys the Bush years and concludes:

On Tuesday Mr Bush will hand over to a man who won a thumping victory by rekindling a dormant American enthusiasm for public service. Mr Obama could not have done it without Mr Bush. Among the epitaphs available, Prof Lindsay’s from his home state of Texas might prove the most enduring. “I can summarise Bush’s legacy in two words,” he says. “Barack Obama.”

Land, lots of land

John Olver, a genuine outdoors guy, has reason to celebrate with the advance of a major public lands bill with a procedural vote in the Senate that sets the bill up for an affirmative vote that lands it on President Obama's desk. The bill will create the New England National Scenic Trail including the Monadnock, Metacomet and Mattabessett trails. The legislation is national in scope and over in Alaska they do get to build a road, if not a bridge, but the state is swapping land with the Feds as part of the deal.

Its sort of standard to remark about Olver's professorial manner but he grew up on a dairy farm in Pennsylvania and really does love the outdoors.

Sic Transit Gloria PolitickerMA

Blue Mass Group and Politico both report the demise of PolitickerMA.com. Apparently the whole project has gone under with the exception of the New Jersey and New York sites. The site was doing some original reporting in addition to aggregating the news from other sources. It's unfortunate. OneMassachusetts makes a good effort at collecting news relating to finances, human services and education from Worcester east but we're missing a site with a statewide orientation.

Buffalo Wings

The Globe has a “ Take 10” piece on the best buffalo wings in New England and sadly omits two of the best wing shops around – that being Quickies in Chicopee and Amherst's own Wings Over (Hangar). Being a wings aficionado and having lived in Western New York makes me think this is a topic not left to amateurs at the Globe. Us WNY ex-pats take our food traditions seriously.

The whole concept of buffalo wings has undergone a veritable Darwinian evolution but traces its DNA back to the Anchor Bar, still holding forth, in Buffalo, where tradition holds that one of the owners (Theresa) improvised a snack for her son and his friends one dark and stormy night back in 1964. From those modest beginnings a trend was born. Bar food plays a major role in American culinary history and I think Jane and Michael Stern have done the best job of cataloging and celebrating it along with other local food traditions (aka “vernacular cuisine”).

I've never owned a deep fryer, so making authentic buf wings requires compromise. Sadly, the Frank & Theresa Anchor Bar sauce sold at the Stop & Shop doesn't seem to translate well either, so here's my version of wings:

24+ wings, cut at the joint. Thinner wings actually work better – avoid the oversized Purdue jobs

Frank's Hot Sauce (preferred) or Trappey's Red Devil

Stick of butter (salted)

Allspice (ground)

Dust the wings lightly with the allspice

Bake the wings, preferably in a convection oven, at 375 – 400 until they are browned.

Melt the butter and stir in ¼ (mild) to ½ (hot) cup of hot sauce. Use a pot that has a good, tight fitting cover.

Toss the wings, in small batches, in the butter and sauce. Best accomplished by holding the cover on the pot and shaking it.

Serve with bleu cheese dressing and celery sticks. Maybe some warm German potato salad on the side.

Serves two to three native New Englanders or one Western New Yorker.

Sunday Morning Reading

Clive James “ A Prediction That's a Safe Bet” from the Beeb.

Jame Saft “ We are all Madoff Investors” from Reuters.

Michael Lewis and David Einhorn “End of the Financial World as We Know It” in the NYT.

Frank Rich “ A President Forgotten But Not Gone” also in the NYT.

Toyota

Green Daily reports that Toyota is working on a solar Prius but CNET suggests this might just be some fakery. And in what might be another blow to the Big Three, the first Western Mass baby born in 2009 will apparently have the same name as a Toyota product.

The Muddies

One may wish to wander over to Mudflats, review that was the year that was in the last frontier's politics and then pick your favorites to win the annual Muddie.